The crowd erupted in response to his score. They were furious. They erupted again after two judges were asked to reconsider their scores and Nemov still found himself in third. They were not just booing the score; they were booing the next competitor, Paul Hamm. Hamm looked nervously throughout the arena, debating whether or not to take the bar. Nemov finally came forward to quiet the crowd. They respected his plea. Hamm then performed a routine that was neither as difficult nor as impressive as Nemov. He was awarded better than a 9.8 and moved into first. The crowd again erupted and again it was up to Nemov to calm them down. For all of this, Nemov became the darling of commentators and writers throughout the games. They pointed to his grace and his class. They pointed to the character that it required to take such an obvious slight in stride and then do what he could to ensure that a fellow athlete could perform in peace. And because each person exalted needs someone against whom he can be compared, those same people pointed to his female counterpart, Svetlana Khorkina, the most successful and most celebrated of a very talented Russian women’s gymnastics team.

It is here that I must pause and admit something of a bias. You shouldn’t read the rest of this and assume that it is totally objective. It’s as objective as possible, but admittedly may be slightly clouded. The only Olympic event I make sure to watch other than basketball is women’s gymnastics. Why? Yes it’s the obvious answer, I’m a guy and some of them are hot. In 1996 I was 18 and Khorkina was 17. She was hot and my age so I didn’t have to feel bad. In 2000 in Sydney she was 21 and I was 22. She was hot and my age so I didn’t have to feel bad. In 2004 she’s 25 and I’m 26, and still hot, and I still don’t have to feel bad. Yes, I’ve seen the Russian Playboy spread. Yes I still think she’s hot despite now being a bit underweight. So yes, you could argue a bias exists.

Back to the point. Most Olympic commentators, including NBC’s staff and many writers covering the games, called her a whiner and prima Dona. They point to a “repeated lack of class” displayed by Khorkina when she does not win the gold. They compare her to Nemov and ask why she can’t simply accept the fact that she “didn’t have the best performance.” They blame her for the Russian delegation’s protest of the Olympic judge’s decisions in the women’s all-around and the men’s high bar. They call her a bad example to other gymnasts. Khorkina is spoken of in negative terms almost universally by those that cover the Olympics despite a nearly unmatched ability in the games. She’s perceived as a little girl that can’t accept what happened during the games and wants a gold regardless of well she competed. They point to her yelling on the sidelines in 2000 at Sydney and then crying after the completion of the competition. They point to her attitude coming into the games and he claim that she was “going to go out and get the gold medal that rightfully belonged to her.” And they continue to berate her, even two weeks after the Gymnastic competition has ended.

These people are wrong. What few realize is that twice now Svetlana Khorkina has literally been robbed of a gold medal. In 2000 at the Sydney games, Khorkina walked over to her coach after she and her Russian teammates were practicing on the vault and told him that something was wrong with it. Her coach brought this to the attention of officials who replied that the vault was fine. Several Russian competitors went on to have problems with the vault during their rotation. Officials went back to look at the vault and discovered it was in fact at the wrong height. They allowed the results to stand. Romania took the gold from the Russians by two tenths of a point. Khorkina was furious and justifiably so. The Romanians competed on a vault of the proper height. And yes, at that level of competition, even an inch can make all the difference in the world with so much precision required to pull off any move. She was later reduced to tears as the knowledge sank in that her team would not wear the gold. That is the image for which she is remembered. Being upset because her team was forced to compete on a piece of faulty equipment and then did not win. They nearly pulled through, coming up just the slightest bit short because of their vault scores. She is not remembered for going out and winning the Uneven Bars with a move so impressive it is named after her.

This isn’t right. A person isn’t a poor sport for complaining that they were forced to compete under differing conditions. She pointed out the error beforehand, was dismissed, then forced to compete and her team failed to win because of the error. That is a legitimate complaint. The US might have invaded a country over a vault with an incorrect height if it cost the US women a gold. Khorkina did not act like a prima Dona. She acted like a leader. How many managers in baseball are castigated for coming out and arguing on behalf of their players when they think a call was wrong? How many NBA coaches are looked down upon for leaping to the defense of a player they feel was wronged? Not many. They lead. They protect their team. They let everyone know, including the officials, that something was done wrong and that it negatively affected their player. That is what Khorkina did. She acted for the team. She shot the fire and she took it back. She became the focal point before the rest of her team could follow suit, meaning that if there was to be a retaliation from the judges for insolence she would bear it, not her teammates, in the upcoming individual competition. But no one remembers that. All they remember is her crying on the sidelines after losing the gold.

Do the judges treat Svetlana differently these days? It certainly looks like it. Khorkina entered the 2004 women’s competition knowing full well that it would be her last go around. With the Russian women trailing, Khorkina went out and posted her team’s highest and third highest overall scores in the team competition and literally carried them to the bronze medal. She showed little emotion, instead exuding an almost business-like attitude in an attempt to ensure that the Russians would again stand on the pedestal. She was a bit shaky on the vault but solid on the bars, beam and floor. And her team was rewarded with yet another team medal. Khorkina then went on to the individual all-around. She excelled. Khorkina had 1 slip on the balance beam. It cost her the required tenth of a point. She was clearly superior to American Carly Patterson in each of the other events. However, Khorkina was awarded low scores in both the uneven bars (where she is a pioneer) and the floor exercise without any specific mistakes for which deductions could have been made. There was nothing for the judges to cite. She was just given low scores despite taking huge risks, getting huge air and making huge tumbling passes. She ended up with the silver in another close contest.

Yes, Khorkina was upset. Yes, she has reason to be. Did you ever turn in a paper only to get it back with a low grade and no comments that would justify that grade? It’s the exact same thing. There weren’t any evident mistakes on the bars or on the floor. Her routines were more impressive than fellow competitors but she was scored lower than they were. There was no explanation. Simply a subjective judging of a performance that awarded the gold medal to Patterson. It’s the equivalent of saying to someone “your opponent won because we said so” instead of giving a list of reasons why that opponent was superior. I’d be pissed about it. Most people would be pissed about it. But because of the perception of Svetlana Khorkina, she doesn’t get to be pissed about it. She’s told to suck it up and be more like Nemov. So let that be a lesson to you. When you’re wronged, just shut up about it. Don’t demand an explanation. Just sit back and accept it and let others treat you as they may. Who cares if they can give you a reason? They’ve spoken and you should accept it. Sound good? What? It doesn’t sound so good? It sounds pretty shitty to me too. And it sounded that way to Svetlana. She stood up and said something about it. She got pushed around in Sydney. She got pushed around in Athens. And she didn’t want to take it anymore. And I applaud her for it.

The Big Story

Some guy in Washington is in the news. I think it’s John Kerry. No? It’s George W. Bush? No? It’s Bob Packwood trying to order lunch at Hooters? Nope, that’s just not it. Of course it’s Joe Gibbs. After a dozen years running his NASCAR business Gibbs decided to come back and work in the world of an actual sport. He brings with him all his old guys (like Joe Bugle) and the same basic offense he left the NFL with in 1992. He brings an expectation of winning in Washington that only peaked its head through for a couple of months in the past decade during Steve Spurrier’s early time with the team. The record of Joe Gibbs is unquestionable. He won 3 Superbowls in 12 years. He’s already in the Hall of Fame. He truly is an NFL legend. And he’ll be coaching against another legend in Bill Parcells, the only man to take 4 teams to the playoffs. Expectations of Redskins fans are through the roof, with many in the DC area talking seriously about a return to the Superbowl this year. Far and away, this is the story of the NFL, not just the NFC East.

Why It Doesn’t Matter

For two reasons, both of which we’ll get into just a bit later. First, the Eagles didn’t lose that much. In fact, when you look at what they gained they are actually probably at a net plus from last season. Second, the ‘Skins were a losing team under Spurrier for a lot more reasons that Spurrier. There is not a lot of talent on this team and they’re all the more worse off having lost Jon Jansen for the year in the team’s first pre-season game. The ‘Skins were only a 3rd place team last year and the Eagles and Cowboys haven’t really made things easier on them this season. Two or three years might be enough time for Joe Gibbs to make a difference here in the division but a single training camp won’t get it done. He’s the big story, but he’s not the division’s driver.

Team By Team Projections

1st – The Eagles – It is important to understand what Philly lost in relation to what Philly had in reserve. Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor are very good. Sheldon Brown and Lito Shepard are ready to step in now. You have to remember, Shepard was all conference as a corner back in the SEC where every single team throws and throws a lot. He spent a lot of time in the nickel package and got a good look at the rest of the division last year. Carlos Emmons and Jeremiah Trotter are a wash. But the Eagles got the Freak. A lot of people are down on the Freak because his sack totals are down to the low double digits. Remember, this is a guy who hasn’t been blocked one on one since his freshman season at the University of Florida. Yet he still disrupts the passing game of any team he faces. On the offensive side Duce Staley is gone. But he’s gone because Brian Westbrook pushed him out. Westbrook had a brilliant season in a running back by committee last year scoring 13 total TDs between rushing, catching and returning. Oh yeah, and they got Terrell Owens. The Eagles had the worst receiving corps in football last year trying to support Donovan McNabb. Constantly running incorrect routes and dropping balls, Todd Pinkston and Freddie Mitchell basically handed the NFC Title game to the Carolina Panthers last year as they looked like a couple of high school kids against all-pro defenders. This is the season for both Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb. All the pieces are in place offensively. The defense is still among the league’s best and no one has yet completely solved the blitz happy scheme of the Eagle D. The Eagles will only play one division game in the first half of the season but have good tests against the NFC North for 3 straight games and then welcome Carolina and Baltimore to the Linc over 3 weeks. That’s the test for Philly. Survive early and control their own destiny at the end of the season. Lose early and control their own destiny at the end of the season. It’s set up as well as it could be for the Eagles and it is their time to take their shot.

2nd – The Cowboys – Forget about Quincy Carter. He wasn’t that good. He had an ok season under Bill Parcells’ system but he’s not the kind of quarterback to lead a team to a title. He wasn’t at Georgia and he wasn’t in Dallas. The Cowboys are actually a better team on paper this year than the team that went 10-6 last season and made the playoffs. They’ve added Marcellus Wiley to an already good defense. Parcells has brought in another of his guys, Keyshawn Johnson, to bolster an anemic offense. Eddie George and Julius Jones make an interesting combination of backfield options that could help make Dallas a real offensive threat for the first time since the days of the Triplets. The big question for the Cowboys is the quarterback position. Vinny is old and Henson is untested. Carter at least had some combination of youth and experience. Now the ‘Boys have neither. Not that they would have been a title team with Carter, but they do have a new set of problems. Dallas faces some internal strife with the whining antics of Antonio Bryant, who will quickly realize that he was far and away the 2nd best wide receiver to attend the University of Pittsburgh in the past 10 years. Add to that a much tougher division as the Giants will be better under Tom Coughlin (not that much better, but better than 4-12) and the Redskins will be better with Clinton Portis and what you have is a rough stretch for the Cowboys. They’ll have to contend with the Packers, Ravens, Seahawks and Saints outside of the division in a tough playoff schedule. It’s been said by a lot of people that Dallas might actually be better this year but finish with a worse record than last year. And they just might be right.

3rd – The Redskins – Remember how I was saying there was a second reason that it didn’t matter? Here is that reason. The Redskins are still lacking in a lot of talent. They brought in Mark Brunell to play quarterback. He’s a very good QB when he’s healthy, which hasn’t happened much over the last few years. He’s a very good QB when he has a decent offensive line, which he won’t have. Washington couldn’t protect the passer last year, not so much because of Spurrier’s scheme but because of the lack of talent up on the offensive line. They’re already depleted with the loss of Jon Jansen. Their defensive line created little to no pressure on the quarterbacks last year. They’ve brought in Phillip Daniels and Cornelius Griffen to try and address that which was the right thing to do. But they downgraded in the defense. Champ Bailey was the shut-down corner in the NFC. They’ve replaced him with Shawn Springs, who is well past his prime and no longer able to man up against the league’s elite wideouts. Here is the best case scenario for the ‘Skins – Sean Taylor is Ed Reed, Clinton Portis isn’t really a Bronco system back, the offensive line can learn to block, Rod Gardner and Darnarien McCants really do have business starting for a team that’s not the Eagles and the argument that Gibbs’ offensive system is still run in Minnesota has some merit in the real world. Here is the probable scenario – Anyone can run behind the Broncos line. Clinton Portis was the 3rd best back in his own division. The Redskins have no receiving threat past Laverneus Coles, which might not matter because their O-line will not be able to protect Brunell. The secondary will give up a lot of big plays, putting even more pressure on the front 4 to get sacks that probably aren’t coming. And most of all, Randy Moss makes the Vikings offense go, not the system. The Skins will see a moderate schedule out of their own division (where they could go 2-4) and are most likely a 7-9 team. Sorry DC, but that’s the way it really is.

4th – The Giants – The Giants had a lot of tough luck last season. The O-line was always banged up, Kerry Collins got hurt and they played most of the season with different combinations of wideouts and D-backs due to injury. Eli Manning has come to town with visions of his brother dancing in his head. Eli should remember that his brother toiled through a 3-13 rookie campaign. There are just too many question marks for this team. Has Tiki Barber finally learned to hang onto the ball or will Ron Dayne be pressed into further service to slow the turnover bleeding? Will Kurt Warner be able to do anything at all on the grass or was he simply a product of the Fun ‘N Gun variant in St. Louis? Can Peterson and Allen stay healthy, and if they can, can they play effectively for a full season? Will Coughlin play Eli Manning if the line isn’t playing well and risk injuring not just his body but his psyche? Will playing 3 of their first 5 games in division choke the Giants out of the season before their bye week? It’s going to be a tough run for New York. At best, Tiki has a nice season, Shockey stays healthy and scores often, if Warner can return to his 2001 form and if the defense can get things together around a healthy secondary this is an 8-8 team. That’s really the ceiling here. More likely is a 5-11 or 6-10 campaign in what is really a rebuilding year for the Giants. But Tom Coughlin has been here before. He knows what to do. He knows what to expect. And the Giants will be a better team in 2005.

The Playoffs

You’ve already read the justifications, so how about we do this quick and dirty, just like amateur porn?

The AFC

Division winners – Indianapolis, Kansas City, Baltimore and New England
Wild Card – Denver and Jacksonville

Wild Card Results – Baltimore over Jacksonville, Indianapolis over Denver
Divisional Results – Baltimore over Kansas City, New England over Indy
Conference Title – New England over Baltimore

The NFC
Division winners – Seattle, Green Bay, New Orleans, Philly
Wild Card – St. Louis, Atlanta

Wild Card Results – St. Louis over Green Bay, New Orleans over Atlanta
Divisional Results – Seattle over New Orleans, Philly over St. Louis
Conference Title – Philly over Seattle

The Superbowl

New England over Philly

The X-Factor

You might have noticed a lot of talk about schedule throughout the NFL Preview hear at InsidePulse. Schedule truly is the X-Factor in the NFL these days. We know about the effects of free agency. We know about the effects that overly talented rookies can have on your team. We know that you might be in some really bad shape if one of your stars has ended up on the cover of Madden. But many people underestimate the effect of schedule on a team. It’s probably the most important factor out there at the beginning of each season and it is something over which most teams have virtually no control.

Here’s the deal – winning teams play other winning teams. If you finish in first then you’ll play the other division winners throughout the course of the season. If you get the wild card you’ll play the other wild card teams and some of the division winners throughout the course of the season. There is also a rotation through the league as to which division plays the other teams of which division out of conference. A lucky team is playing the AFC East, where probably only one squad will make the playoffs. An unlucky team is playing the NFC South, where two teams should make it and a 3rd is the defending conference champ. Teams like Tampa and Miami traditionally don’t play well in the cold. Who they draw in December bears heavily on how they will do for the season. Teams like the Rams play better indoors. Drawing teams like the Colts, Vikings or Texans is an advantage because they will be playing inside. Little quirks in the schedule like that can add or subtract 2-3 games from your record over the course of the season.

The 2001 Bears are perhaps the best example of this. They were a 4th place team the year before and played a very easy schedule outside of their 8 divisional games. They had games against a bad Panther team, a bad Falcons team etc. They won the games they were supposed to win and hung tough in games against teams like the 49ers and Bucs and got the big plays when they needed them. The result was a 13-3 record despite losing their first game of the season in Baltimore. Last year’s Cowboy team was another great example. They parlayed a weak schedule and a good defense into a 10 win season, never actually playing well against teams over .500 but beating those bad teams that they were supposed to beat. This year they’ll face tougher teams out of division thanks to their record from last year.

The odd thing is that this year, the randomness of scheduling is going to play more of a roll than the result of a previous year’s record. Detroit had an awful record last year but will play nothing but tough teams outside of its division. The Patriots are the defending Superbowl champs but have a relatively light schedule outside of the AFC East. Also, there are very few pushover teams. The Chargers will suck. The Lions won’t be that good. The Browns will be pretty bad. The 49ers will long for the return of Joe Montana. But the Cardinals will be respectable. Oakland might not be that bad. The Jets will be a bit better than last year. The Bengals aren’t a joke any more. The Texans will be much improved. Very few teams will look ahead and see teams that they can dominate. Most will look up and hope to see good matchups or favorable venues. So go back and take a look at the key matchups of the season and see what you can see. You might learn something.

The Big Story

As former Musings contributor would say, “Smoke Ricky Smoke!” Blame it on the failed drug test. Blame it on dissatisfaction with the state of the team. Blame it on him just being SAD. It doesn’t matter how you slice it, the big story in the AFC East is the retirement of Ricky Williams from the Miami Dolphins just one week before the team officially entered camp. Williams set standards of rushing and scoring for the Dolphins that hadn’t been seen since Larry Cszonka and Mercury Morris were roaming the sidelines. He provided a cushion for the inexperienced and often ineffective quarterbacks Jay Fielder and Brian Griese when they couldn’t complete a pass. After all, Fiedler has no arm and Griese has no touch. Griese is gone now and A.J. Feely is in his place. Most important of all is that Travis Minor is now the starter at RB in Miami. They had no time to make a trade. They had the bait in Wally Ogunleye but just didn’t have the time to put anything together. Now they’ll enter the season down one of the premier backs in the league. Compound that with the loss of David Boston (and some more that we’ll get to later) and things are quite newsworthy in Miami.

Why It Doesn’t Matter

Because they weren’t going to the playoffs anyway. It’s time for all you Dolphin fans and Dave Wannstedt apologists to line up, because this is where he gets trashed. Wannstedt is a horrible coach. He was a horrible coach in Chicago and he’s been a horrible coach in Miami. He doesn’t make in game adjustments, doesn’t understand matchups, doesn’t understand clock management and doesn’t know when to give his players freedom and when to pull the reins in the game. Blame Norv Turner if you want, but it’s the head coach’s responsibility to take control when he sees one of his coordinators doing something wrong. He put together a nice team as GM. He drafted Chris Chambers. He orchestrated the Ricky Williams deal. He’s the one that spotted Randy McMichael. He kept the defense together and did what he could to bring in the right guys. But the Dolphins fired him from the job he was good at and kept him in the job he was bad at. Now Brock Marion and 4/5 of the offensive line are gone and Miami is in trouble. So worry about Ricky Williams if you like, but he’s only one piece of the puzzle.

Team By Team Projections

1st – The Patriots – They’re the defending Superbowl champions, they got Vince Wilfork way later in the draft than he should have gone and they’ve added Corey Dillon to give them a real running game. Bill Belichick is the ultimate game planner. He makes adjustments, figures out schemes and puts in plans as the game is happening, keeping his team in every contest. The Patriots have one of the easiest championship schedules every, facing Arizona, Cleveland, San Fran and Pittsburgh out of conference. It’s time for the league to accept that Tom Brady is for real. All he’s done is win 2 Superbowls and put up one of the most impressive TD to INT ratios of any quarterback ever. They’ve proven that their system allows them to substitute offensive lineman when injuries occur with little impact to their pass protection schemes. There’s just not much more to say about the Pats. They’re the defending champs, on paper they got better in the off-season, and they are the undisputed team to beat again this year.

2nd – The Bills – Let’s get something straight from the get-go. This is probably not going to be a competitive division. The Pats might very well be the only team in the AFC East to finish above .500. Buffalo is out from under the yoke of Gregg Williams, who was just overmatched as a head coach and had no concept of what do with the offense. They made the right hire in Mike Mularky, who’s offensive genius was enough to turn the Steelers into a genuine passing threat while not losing sight of his ground weapons. He’ll have some nice additions to work with on both sides of the ball, including Chris Villarial on the O-line and Troy Vincent to help sure up the secondary. He’ll also have a familiar face from Pittsburgh in Jason Gildon helping out the linebackers and improving the defense against both the run and the pass. Offensively, Willis McGahee will push Travis Henry for his job but probably won’t unseat him just yet. J.P. Losman will hold a clipboard all season, but he’s going to need to learn in a hurry as Drew Bledsoe’s only got a could of years left in him. Eric Moulds, Josh Reed and Bobby Shaw present a steady trio of wideouts, but the real story is a group of rookies lead by Kevin Beard and Lee Evans that could be very good in the very near future. The problem for the Bills lies in the fact that they had all sorts of weapons on offense last year but couldn’t score. Through a quirk of scheduling the Bills play 5 of their first 9 games in division, meaning that they’ll be unable to find a two game swing anytime after November. Their 3rd place schedule plays well into a chance to compete as it is unlikely that any of the teams they play over the last 4 weeks will be at or above .500 with the possible exception of the Bengals. Of course, the chances are pretty good that Buffalo won’t be over .500 either.

3rd – The Jets – Marvin Jones and Mo Lewis have been steady for the Jets for some time but they’re not getting any younger. Jonathon Vilma comes out of that great middle-linebacking tradition at the University of Miami and is ready to play right now. Justin McCaerins provides a great 2nd option alongside of Santana Moss for the young Chad Pennington. Curtis Martin isn’t dead yet. He rushed for over 1300 yards last year and should go over 1000 again this year. Lamont Jordan will see some more work this year as the Jets are going to be forced to go with him the older Martin gets. The Jets were lower middle of the road last year in both offense and defense and probably won’t be a whole lot better this year. They’ll try to open up the offense, going 5 wide at times and trying to sneak Anthony Becht underneath as often as they can. Donnie Abraham and Ray Mickens are steady in the secondary but the line and the linebackers will be tested often throughout the season. The Jets have a tough run to start and end the season, getting the Bengals (who match up perfectly with them) in week 1 and then seeing Seattle and St. Louis in two of the last three weeks of the year. Things aren’t going to pretty for the Jets despite two fairly weak division rivals in Buffalo and Miami. But if they can get the passing game going and beat the teams at the bottom (San Diego, San Fran and Cleveland are all on the schedule) then they might put together something of a season.

4th – The Dolphins – Miami could very well be the worst team in this division. They’ve lost Ricky Williams as we discussed. But they also brought in David Boston to give Fielder and Feely a 2nd receiving option. He’s hurt and now out for the season. That means the only credible wide out Miami has is Chris Chambers, making it easier for teams to throw a double team at him and take him out of the game. Miami will be nearly completely rebuilt up the middle. Travis Minor is the starting running back, it might not be long until A.J. Feely is taking the snaps and 4 of last years starters on the offensive line are no longer with the team. On defense, Miami lost Brock Marion, who has been the anchor of a very good secondary for the past 5 + years. We all know about the cold weather woes of the Dolphins in December. They’ll have to play in Denver and in Baltimore in December. They’ll also welcome the Titans and Rams to Miami while playing another tough road game in Seattle. The common factor for Miami is that they will either play in cold weather or face teams that they just don’t match up with for most of the season. Losing Marion is going to make it very tough to stop Seattle or St. Louis through the air. They’ll play a New England team, a Buffalo team, a Cincy team and a Ravens team that can blitz on every down, something they don’t want to see with a totally rebuilt offensive line. 4th might be a bit harsh on Miami. Their D-line is still pretty good and they do have Zach Thomas. But this team has lost a lot, they don’t have a good coach, they play some really good teams down the stretch (Denver, New England and Baltimore in the last 4 weeks) and they just don’t have enough to get there. Not this year.

Don’t miss the conclusion of Mark’s NFL Preview tomorrow where he previews the NFC East, the playoffs, and the X-Factor!

The Big Story

It’s Michael Vick. Of course it’s Michael Vick. What else could it be? The league’s most dynamic player missed most of the season last year after suffering from the Madden Jinx and a broken leg in August against the Ravens. This year he’s back and healthy. He’s got Peerless Price and he’s got Alge Crumpler. T.J. Duckett has had some time to grow and Warrick Dunn should finally understand his role in the offense when he’s on the field. Vick will play inside the West Coast offense for the first time in his life, meaning that the run game will not be emphasized at all costs to set up the pass. He’s going to get opportunities. He’ll still be able to take off when he needs to now that’s healthy. Will he be the same Mike Vick that beat Brett Favre in 2002? Yes, he probably will. And that’s what will make all the news in this division.

Why It Doesn’t Matter

Because the Falcons made the single worst decision of the off-season. They hired Jim Mora Jr. to coach the team. The same Jim Mora Jr. that lead the 49er defense into the black hole. The same Jim Mora Jr. that was on the verge of being fired by San Francisco before getting the offer from Atlanta. He was brought in to work with Atlanta’s defense. It was a mistake. They could have had Tom Coughlin to work with a defense. They could have had Jim Fassel, who is known for his work with QBs and never left the Giant defense unattended. But instead they went with an unproven and incompetent head coach in Jim Mora Jr. Playoffs? Did you say playoffs? This team…well, we won’t go into that particular Jim Mora speech right now…

Team By Team Projections

1st – The Saints – For the last several years New Orleans has had the most talented team in the division. They’ve had the best quarterback (Mike Vick’s cousin, Aaron Brooks), the best running back and the best wide receiver. They’ve had a good defense and good lines on both sides of the ball. Yet somehow, Jim Haslett has been unable to lead this team to the playoffs since getting their first ever win as a franchise in 2000. In Haslett’s defense, the team has been hurt in the past. Brooks has had some injuries, so has horn, and McCallister played much of last year at under 100% health. This year they enter camp healthy for the first time in years. They got Will Smith in the draft from Ohio St, who was unquestionably the best defensive lineman in the entire draft. This should help what was an awful run defense last year. They have everyone back in the secondary and won’t have to face a dominant back in the division. The prospect of DeShaun Foster and Stephen Davis has to be a good thing for New Orleans. With Michael Vick healthy, Aaron Brooks may no longer be the best QB in the division. But McCallister is still the dominant back and Horn and Pathon are still the best 1-2 punch of receivers in the South. If Boo Williams repeats his performance at TE from 2003 then this team should be good enough to fend off the rest of the division with ease.

2nd – The Falcons – Because Michael Vick will single-handedly win them several games, that’s why. Because they have one of the weakest schedules in the NFL. They’ll play San Fran, Detroit, San Diego, the Giants, the Cardinals, and Oakland. None of these teams will have a good passing defense except for the Giants and none of them will be able to score with Vick. Atlanta’s defense will not stop anyone. They’ll be a sieve. It will be something of a return to the run and shoot era for the Falcons where they couldn’t play any real defense but they were able to go toe to toe offensively with most teams. If Vick stays healthy this year they will be among the league leaders in passing offense and there should be an opportunity for Duckett and Dunn to pile up some numbers on the ground. It really is that simple for Atlanta. With Vick they’re the 2nd best team in the division and a possible playoff contender. Without him they’re a 5-11 team at best that will be near the bottom of every category in the NFL. I’m betting on Vick’s health, and with it, a good run for Atlanta.

3rd – The Panthers – There is a rule that you don’t bet against the defending champs before the season starts. The problem here is that this is not the same Panther team that came within a couple of plays of winning the Superbowl last year. 3 of their 5 O-line starters are gone. 3 members of their starting secondary are gone. They’ve still got Jake Delhomme at QB, who is the classic “play just well enough to not lose the game for your team but never win it for them” QB. The Panthers were 10th against the pass last year. They won’t be that good this year. They were 11th against the run last year, mostly because their outstanding secondary allowed them to commit an extra man to stopping the run. They won’t have that this year. They’ll be playing running back by committee behind a completely rebuilt offensive line. They’ll face an all-pro running back and an all-pro quarterback inside their own division. They’ll play a wicked first place schedule that will take them on the road to KC, Denver, Philly and Seattle. They’ll be tested every single week with their only real breaks against the Chargers and Raiders. There is very little chance for Carolina to put together the kind of season that 2003 brought. Perhaps is Chris Gamble, the steal of the draft, plays with the fire that caused teams to stop throwing at him during his time at Ohio St, then maybe they have a chance. But odds are long. Very long.

4th – The Bucs – It’s been a long fall from grace for the 2002 champs. Their defense still can’t stop the run. They lost Warren Sapp, John Lynch and Nate Webster. They haven’t had a real running game in years. They brought in Charlie Garner to try and change that, but he’s more of a pass catcher. They’ve tried to bolster the offensive line and they brought in Darrell Russell, Ian Gold and Mario Edwards to bolster all three parts of the defense. They do have some real speed on offensive in Joey Galloway and Michael Clayton. If Brad Johnson can deliver the ball then they may be able to be the vertical team that Tony Dungy envisioned when he had Keyshawn Johnson a few years ago. They brought in Tim Brown, who despite his advanced age still have great hands and is a very good possession receiver. But they’re about to lose Keenan McCardell, who is likely to end his holdout only when sent off to another team, an option the Bucs will probably take if they think they can get a good draft pick for him. The Bucs enter the season with the personnel of a team that will be just good enough to keep most games close. They have a relatively easy schedule this year. The flip side to that is that many other teams are looking at them as the relatively easy team on the schedule. If all the pieces come together, if John Gruden can do with this team what he did in Oakland a few years ago, then they might be a .500 team this year. The best days for the Bucs clearly lie ahead of them.

Stay tuned to moodspins all week for Mark’s NFL Preview. Up tomorrow – The AFC East!

The Big Story

It’s the dismantling of the Tennessee Titans. Jevon Kearse is gone. Eddie George is gone. Derrick Mason is still there but Justin McCaerins has been traded. Those Titan teams of the past couple of years no longer exist. Tennessee will have to rely on Chris Brown and Antowain Smith to carry a running game that has been the basis of the offense in Nashville since the move. Steve McNair has lost his favorite target in Frank Wycheck to retirement. The Titan defense will have to rely on Albert Haynesworth to anchor the defensive line and try to fight through the double teams that had historically plagued The Freak. This is no small task. The secondary will have its own issues if the pass rush isn’t there. Only Lance Shulters and Samare Rolle have more than a couple of years experience as starters. It’s difficult to call this a rebuilding year in Tennessee because they still have several of their starters on both side of the ball. They’ve still got one of the best home-field advantages in all of the NFL. But Jeff Fischer’s run of mullet magic may be nearing an end.

Why It Doesn’t Matter

Because this will be the year of the Texans. In year 3 many players come to fruition. They have a breakout, show why they were drafted and have a big impact. This is the year that the system finally allows David Carr to move forward. This is the year that Dominick Davis learns how to run behind the line at will and opens up the offense. This is the year that an already good defense learns how to take the ball away from other teams and give the offense more chances. Houston upset the Dallas Cowboys in the very first game of their existence. They shocked Miami in game one of last year. They proved themselves to be a force and would have done so with or without the moves of the Titans.

Team By Team Projections

1st – The Colts – Yes, it’s still the Colts. They still have Peyton Manning, they still have Edgerrin James, and they still have Marvin Harrison. They have great complementary players in Reggie Wayne and Marcus Pollard that just give Peyton Manning more weapons. Kicker Mike Vanderjagt was perfect last year in both PATs and Field Goals, adding even more points to the Colt total every game. Offense has never been and never will be their problem. Defensively the Colts will see trouble, especially in this division with a couple of good backs. Chad Bratzke’s departure leaves a big hole in the middle of the defense that someone is going to have to fill. 2nd year Nose Tackle Tank Reese will have to step up and fill the middle and try to negate some of the blocking schemes the Colts will see that are designed to exploit their weak run defense. The secondary will also face some real challenges with the loss of Walt Harris. Now the good news for the Colts. They will play a rough schedule of course as a first place team. But when they move out of division they’ll play three teams in Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota that don’t have established running games. Of those teams that do have good running games, only the Chiefs score with the kind of frequency that defines the Colts. They’ll be able to go toe to toe with New England and Denver. Most importantly, they can outscore everyone in their own division and exploit the two young quarterbacks in Houston and Jacksonville. It won’t be an easy run, but it will be a successful one for the Colts through the AFC South.

2nd – The Jags – The Jags were OK last year. They didn’t lose much. Mark Brunell was a Jacksonville institution. But do you remember the name Byron Leftwich? Remember the guy at Marshall with the smooth delivery? The guy who played on a broken leg when it meant winning the game? The monster figure behind the line that stands in the face of any rusher if he thinks he can unload the ball and takes the big hit if it means the touchdown? This is his year. Fred Taylor stayed healthy all year last year. He might be able to do it again this year. In fact, he probably will do it again this year. If he doesn’t his backups will step forward. LaBrandon Toefield is currently number 2 on the depth chart but he won’t stay there. Greg Jones is already getting his reps on special teams and is getting a lot of time near the goal line. Most people don’t know his name. He’s the most dominant running back in Florida St history. Had it not been for a knee injury he would have won a Heisman trophy. He’s the true heir to Fred Taylor and could begin to assert himself as early as this year. Defensively the Jags got way better, adding DeWayne Washington to bolster a weak secondary. The Jags were an amazing 2nd in the league against the rush last year and they’ve got everyone back. They’ll battle the Colts all the way to the end for the division. Unfortunately for them, the Jags have to go to Green Bay in the middle of December in the middle of their division race. That game will probably be their undoing.

3rd – The Titans – We already touched on the Titans a bit. Their losses are going to be tough to take. Their defense is going to be worse this year. Their running game is going to be unreliable at best and could completely fall apart with the unproven Brown and the erratic Smith. Perhaps their biggest loss came off the field. Gunther Cunningham left his position as linebackers coach to coordinate the defense in Kansas City. Steve McNair has been carrying the team on his shoulders for years now. He might not have a whole lot left in the tank. Especially when you take a look out over the schedule facing the Titans in 2004. They’ll play the Dolphins, Broncos, Packers and Chiefs out of division. Each presents a unique set of problems for the Titans. Miami’s defense is geared to stop the kinds of limited weapons McNair will see. The Broncos and Packers will run the ball through the tackles, a place where Tennessee isn’t sure they can fill gaps this year. And the Chiefs, well, they’re the Chiefs. Enough said. Don’t get me wrong. McNair still has something, even if he’s nearing empty. He’s still good for 2-3 wins all by himself. And Brown and Smith may in fact turn out to be solid backs this year that keep the Titan offense on the field. The problem is, you don’t win on what ifs. You win on talent. And this year, the Titans might just not have the talent.

4th – The Texans – This is a deceptive ranking for the Texans. They’ll be a very good 4th place team. They might be 8-8. They might move up in fact and finish a bit higher. But they will put pressure on the entire division and might finish as high as 3-3 in the AFC South. A good young core of David Carr, Andre Johnson and Dominick Davis could be bolstered by Jabar Gaffney if can improve on last year’s disappointing performance. Billy Davis is one of the better young TEs in the game and is a strong safety net for a quarterback that probably still has fresh memories of being sacked 4-5 times a game his rookie year. Dunta Robinson was one of the better corners in the draft this year and will make a big difference right away in a secondary that was 2nd worst in the league against the pass in 2003. They’ll get a big boost out of the division. They play San Diego, they play Detroit, they play the Jets and they play the Browns. It’s a good schedule to build confidence. Of course, these are a lot of assumptions for a team that finished in the 30s in both offense and defense last year. They were in a lot of games last year. But they only won 5 of those games last year. If the defensive additions don’t contribute, and if guys like Jamie Sharper don’t return to the form they had in their previous teams then it could be a long, long year in Houston again. Good running backs are hard to judge. Davis could have been a one year wonder. Gaffney might not come along, meaning teams can concentrate on Johnson and slow the passing attack again. But I think that this is the year it starts to come together for the Texans. This is the year they move to .500 and they might actually make some noise in the playoff race.

Stay tuned to moodspins all week for Mark’s NFL Preview. Up Tuesday – The NFC South!

The Big Story

The last hurrah of Brett Favre. The comic genius of Something About Mary fame has basically said that it is Superbowl or bust this year. Favre lost out last year on a miracle 4th and 23 against Philly that would have sealed the game and sent the Pack back to the NFC title game had the defense simply been able to not give up 23 yards on 1 play. His streak is in tact but his thumb is not. A recent press conference showed the damage done. Favre continued to climb the ladder of the all-time TD list toward Marino in spite of the pain and the altered delivery last year. This year will probably be his last dance. There is little reason to believe that Favre, already with 14 seasons and 346 TDs under his belt, will come back to the frozen tundra for another campaign that could leave him with a permanent injury and probably won’t lead to a title.

Why It Doesn’t Matter

Because of Ahman Green. It’s hard to imagine a Favre team that is run first but Ahman Green has brought that to the table. He’s one of the league’s most versatile backs, capable of shredding a defense through finesse or power and always keeps the danger in your mind of splitting out for a catch. Green corralled the fumble problems last year enough to keep the Pack on top of the NFC North and took them rolling into the playoffs for another shot at glory. Najeh Davenport will not be traded to Miami, meaning that Green will retain his best road paver and also another threat to come out of the flat with a swing pass. Tim Couch may be Favre’s heir-apparent. Another QB could come along. And while no one will replace Favre, the Pack will still be a contender as long as they can count on Ahman Green out of the backfield.

Team By Team Projections

1st – The Packers – Why? Because they still have Ahman Green. Unless Tommie Harris comes up huge for the Bears Brian Urlacher will still be fighting through 3 blocks to get him every game and there is no other player in the division capable of matching up with him one on one. Green will most likely be good for around 2,000 total yards this season and will most likely lead the division in TDs (unless Moss goes insane). Mike McKenzie’s holdout could hurt a defense that was questionable against the pass last year, but McKenzie’s not all that good, which is part of the reason they were questionable against the pass last year. What could really help the Pack is the play of Ahmad Carrol at the corner. Carrol spent his entire college career playing against Matt Mauck, Eli Manning, Rex Grossman and Chris Leak. He’s used to seeing teams air it out all over the place. While the speed of the NFL game may take him by surprise the notion of going deep certainly will not. The Packer secondary will be tested early with a trip to Indy and the right arm of Payton Manning. The Pack will only play 2 division games in their first 8 contests, meaning winning early is important to build a lead going into the two game swing part of the season. If they can come out of September at 2-2 having faced the Panthers and Colts they’ll be in good shape. If they come out 3-1 or 4-0 they’ll be able to clinch the division by just playing .500 against the rest of the North.

2nd – The Bears – Yes, the Bears. Why? Because quite frankly the Vikings and the Lions just aren’t that good. The injury to Urlacher isn’t that serious. He’ll be back early in the season. Chicago stands to enter September with the offensive line in tact for the first time since they won the division in 2001. John Shoop is out as offensive coordinator, meaning that the Bear offense will begin to go up and down the field instead of side to side. Thomas Jones has already unseated Anthony Thomas at running back but the two could push each other as the season goes. Rex Grossman is the unquestioned starter and did show flashes of his Gator self during his brief stint as the starter at the end of last season. Defensively, Tommy Harris and Tank Johnson have the potential to create the Washington and Traylor type situation where holes are filled and linebackers can scrape side to side unmolested, meaning that Brian Urlacher should see a lot more tackles and forced fumbles this year. Despite an almost non-existent pass rush last year the Chicago secondary was 9th overall against the pass. The Bears should get more push from the front 4 this year which should make them that much better against the pass. Now for the bad news. The season depends on the O-line staying healthy which is hasn’t done for 2 years. The D-line depends on the play of two rookies who may or may not be impact players. The Bears have the league’s most forgiving road schedule but they will welcome the Colts and Eagles to Soldier Field. This isn’t a playoff team, but 9-7 will be good enough for 2nd in the NFC North this year.

3rd – The Vikings – Minnesota just isn’t as good as advertised. They really aren’t. They were 24th in total defense last year and Greg Biekert retired. Their offense is one dimensional. Yes, Moss is great. 1600 yards receiving and 17 TDs screams great. Culpepper is not that great. I mean, how much talent does it take to heave the ball downfield and let Moss jump up for it? Minnesota’s running game was 4th in the league last year but they didn’t have a thousand yard rusher. Michael Bennet seems to be healthy but they’re not sure. Their offensive line is huge but outside of Mt. McKinnie there is little quickness. The Vikes will be tested by the blitz often this season as teams decide to take their chances and stop Randy Moss by preventing Culpepper from delivering the ball. Dallas and Philly will both gamble in the first two weeks of the season and take away a significant number of Dante’s options as early as possible. And the Vikings, who were 27th against the pass last year, will face Payton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Aaron Brooks and Matt Hasselback in addition to their normal helping of Brett Favre. Now for the good news. Minnesota still has Randy Moss, meaning every single play is a potential touchdown on offense. They will only play 4 of their road games outside, meaning this turf based team will feel the comfort of a dome for 12 games. Only 1 of their first 8 games is within the division, so they will control their own destiny with even a .500 start. The schedule sets up great for them and plays right into their offensive strengths. They should be able to score a ton of points this season again, which is good because their defense may be that bad again. There is potential in Minnesota this year. But there was potential last year. And in 2002. And in 2001. And in 2000. And they fell short every year, missing the playoffs several times.

4th – The Lions – I hesitated at first to anoint the Lions a last place team. They’re intriguing. Very intriguing. Detroit’s defense should be better this year. They brought in Brock Marion to anchor the secondary alongside Dre Bly. A healthy Boss Bailey should continue to improve their linebacking corps. Offensively they drafted the Legend and Kevin Jones. There is potential for a breakout season. But one question remains to be answered: is Joey Harrington actually any good. He’s gotten a pass to this point. Partly because there was no running game in Detroit, party because of the injury to Charles Rogers last year. Partly because people are still giving him the cushion from being outraged about the Cornhuskers taking his chance for a national title. He is the key to this team. Kevin Jones is not a great back. He was in fact about the 5th or 6th best back in the draft last year behind guys like Chris Perry and Greg Jones. Harrington must excel and force teams to respect the pass if Jones is to find running lanes. Harrington must turn Charles Rogers and the Legend Roy Williams into bona-fide NFL receiving threats if Detroit is to move the ball. The Lions were dead last in rushing last year and dead last in total offense. But here’s the real kicker for this Detroit team. They don’t have a 4th place schedule. The Lions will face the Falcons, Texans, Eagles, Cowboys, Jags, Colts and Titans out of division. Mike Vick makes Atlanta a different team. The Titans still have McNair. This is the breakout year for Byron Leftwich and David Carr. The Eagles, Cowboys and Colts are all just as good as they were last year. It’s going to be a rough run for a young team, and in the end, that’s why they’ll finish 4th.

Stay tuned to moodspins all week for Mark’s NFL Preview. Up tomorrow – The AFC South!

The Big Story

November 1st. That is the day that the Federal drug trial will start for last year’s 2000 yard rusher Jamaal Lewis of the Baltimore Ravens. The Feds have been looking at Lewis for a couple of years now but have only just decided to prosecute him and bring him to trial. Lewis has been the anchor of a Baltimore running attack that has been the main thrust of the team’s offense for the past 4 years since his emergence from UT. The Ravens have a trio of backs in Chester Taylor, Alan Ricard and former University of Georgia standout (and incidentally son of a man convicted of aiding and abetting the ’93 WTC terror cell) Musa Smith. None of them will see too much time carrying the ball for the first 8 weeks because the Ravens will need Lewis to guide the ground attack. Kyle Boller isn’t ready, he won’t be ready any time soon (even with Fassel’s help) and Slash is basically done. Brian Billick will hold his breath as deeply as every single fantasy owner out there that come season’s end Jamaal won’t have missed any time. After all, they usually don’t hold trials on Sundays.

Why It Doesn’t Matter

Because of 2 other men in the division named Lewis. First off, setting aside the Madden Jinx, the best linebacker on the planet will still be wearing number 52 for Baltimore and anchoring the most dominating defense in the league. Add another year of experience for youngsters Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed and you have a defensive unit that should provide enough takeaways and disrupt enough passing games to give the Ravens a lot of chances on offense. Out West a little ways lies Marvin Lewis, head coach of the Bengals. Cincy made great strides last year. They put together a nice winning streak and in November were actually in contention for the division, something that hasn’t happened since the days of the Ickey Shuffle. While the Bengals will live and die with the play of Rudi and Chad Johnson along with Carson Palmer, their defense will still be designed to do one thing and one thing only – stop Jamaal Lewis, the primary threat in their division. Regardless of who runs the ball in Baltimore, Marvin will be ready and waiting with a scheme designed to keep the Ravens in 3rd and long all day.

Team By Team Projections

1st – The Ravens – We already touched on it a bit. Kyle Boller is not the answer for Baltimore. While he has the size and arm strength to throw with anyone in the league, he’s simply not a good decision maker or accurate passer. Decision making is something that Jim Fassel will emphasize and will try to improve. But Boller’s accuracy as a passer and his near inability to throw a touch pass will not be changing any time soon. The good news for Baltimore is that Jamaal Lewis will continue to command enough attention that Boller isn’t going to need to worry about threading in too many passes. He should see lots of one on one coverage as teams bring up 8 men to stop the Raven running attack. The Ravens won’t need to score a lot of points to be successful. As I said before, they have the best defense in the league. They have good cover corners and the most opportunist safety the league has seen in years in Ed Reed, who can also return or block punts almost at will. The only question mark for the Ravens is the health of Peter Boulware, who at the time of this article is still on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list and is not attending practice. Boulware’s speed and power make him an ideal pass rusher and a pretty good run stopper, but on this team, he’s not irreplaceable. Adalius Thomas is still on the roster and Edgerton Hartwell has the speed to move to the outside and take Boulware’s place until he is healthy again. In a division where none of the other three teams have a respectable offensive line, well, there’s going to be a lot of pain.

2nd – The Bengals – Yes, the Bengals. What has gone quietly unnoticed in Cincy is the improvement in their offense. Chad Johnson is establishing himself as one of the NFL’s elite wide outs. Rudi Johnson had a fantastic run last year filling in for Corey Dillon. Peter Warrick, while never having lived up to the expectations surrounding his Heisman campaign (and free shoes campaign) at Florida St, still possess great speed and can be a weapon if left in single coverage downfield. Most importantly, Marvin Lewis has brought and expectation of winning to one of the worst franchises in any sport. He’s also brought in Deltha O’Neal and Tory James to help play the corners and bolster a suspect nickel package from last year. The Bengals defense saw instant improvement under the tutelage of Marvin Lewis. Yes they were ranked 28th overall last year, but compared to the 32nd they would have been, that’s not too bad. Surprisingly, they were top half of the NFL in both rushing and passing. Of course, the big question in camp is why NFL comeback player of the year John Kitna was summarily benched in favor of unproven rookie Carson Palmer. And this could be the Achilles heel for the Bengals. Remember, Palmer didn’t have a good Heisman season. He had a good half. Palmer put up 85% of his numbers in the last 50% of his games. He now hasn’t played in a game situation consistently for well over a year. The learning curve here will be tough to overcome. He’ll be tested with a helacious road schedule that sees Cincy travel to Tennessee and then to New England and Philly in the last month of the season. As Palmer goes so goes this team. But they’re still better than Pittsburgh or Cleveland.

3rd – The Steelers – It wasn’t a good off-season in Pittsburgh. They lost their best linebacker in Jason Gildon and their best DB in DeWayne Washington. The Steelers had a nice draft, score Ben Roethlisberger, who many feel might have actually been the best QB in the draft, and got a couple of good prospects for their lines. The problem is that the Pittsburgh ground game won’t be any better this year than last year. Duce Staley didn’t leave Philly: he was forced out by Brian Westbrook, who outplayed him in ever facet of the game last year. Jerome Bettis has the proverbial fork sticking out of his back right now. Alan Faneca, the most dependable man on their line, may start the season playing out of position again. Pittsburgh still has the luxury of a strong 1-2 punch at wideout of Plaxico Burress and Hines Ward, but it remains to be seen which Tommy Maddox, the one from 02 or the one from 03, will show up to camp, and of course, how long before Big Ben can push him aside. One the other side of the ball the Steelers will be hurting significantly. A team that was ranked 9th overall in defense will experience a significant falloff with the losses of Gildon and Washington. They’ll face two good backs in division in Lewis and Johnson but they won’t see a potentially strong passing attack until week 9. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, they won’t be scoring a lot of points, which means that the defense will be working that much harder every play and probably see little to no return.

4th – The Browns – The Browns logically should be better. They did get Jeff Garcia. They may have a healthy and non-suspended running back this year. They got The Great God of All Tight E…I mean Kellen Winslow II into camp with a record contract. But here’s the problem with Cleveland. Their offensive line couldn’t stop anyone last year. The Ravens and Bengals are arguably better defensively than they were last year. Dallas, Philly, New England and Miami are all on the schedule out of division and all of them can find a way to get to your quarterback. For his vaunted hands, Winslow is a bad blocking Tight End, which is why several analysts actually had Ben Troupe ahead of him on their boards for teams picking tight ends. William Green is completely unproven as a feature back and there is no one on the horizon behind him to take his job. James Jackson was the only man on the team to score even 6 TDs last year. 6. Priest Holmes himself had more TDs than the Browns’ offense. On the other side of the ball the Cleveland defense is a sieve against the run. They were ranked 23rd on the ground and will again face an onslaught of feature backs that will test them on every play. A defensive line featuring a potential 6 290+ pounders including former Florida standout Gerard Warren and FSU mainstay Orpheus Roye must begin to close holes this season and Penn St legend Courtney Brown must reach the QB or the Browns will be run right off the field week in and week out.

Stay tuned to moodspins all week for Mark’s NFL Preview. Up tomorrow – The NFC North!

The Big Story

The Pro-Bowl Exodus. Jeff Garcia, Terrell Owens and Kurt Warner are all gone from the West. Three years ago Warner was still putting up jaw dropping numbers in the games best aerial attack. Now he’s relegated to a backup and may never see a start in New York. Jeff Garcia spent the last few years removing Steve Young and Joe Montana from the 49er record books with spectacular runs and passing efficiency totals that boggled the mind at time. TO whined, stopped whining, pulled a few stunts, paid a few fines, pissed off a whole lot of people but through it all just kept catching the ball and scoring touchdowns. San Fran and St. Louis, the powerhouses of the division for the past 5 seasons, will now be opening up the year with no names at skill positions for the first time in forever.

Why It Doesn’t Matter

Because both teams are system teams. San Fran still runs a version of the West Coast offense. St. Louis still runs the NFL version of the Fun ‘N Gun. The Fun ‘N Gun you say? Yes, the Fun ‘N Gun. A speed offense built around multiple formations and confusing routes designed to create 360 degrees of space around the receiver, anchored by an offensive line that creates passing lanes every down to keep the defense off balance and bolstered by a running back who can catch the ball or slice through those passing lanes on a run for big yardage. It’s every UF team of the 90′s and it’s the Rams for the past 5 years. The beauty of both of these systems is that as long as the line is healthy (and with Kyle Turley gone the Rams’ line might not be) it almost doesn’t matter who you plug in as long as they’ve got speed. Both teams will put up good numbers this year on offense despite the loss of these stars.

Team By Team Projections

1st – The Seahawks – Picking up Grant Wistrom and Bobby Taylor basically nullifies the loss of John Randle and Shaun Springs. Reggie Tongue was a tough loss but he can be replaced. Ray Rhodes has had enough time to indoctrinate his system into the rest of the defense and the Seahawks should finally figure out how to slow teams down this season. They were middle of the pack against the pass run last year but got murdered by the pass. Taylor should help with that as should the pressure applied by Wistrom, who’s a lot younger than Randle was. Marcus Trufant has had a year to mature in the secondary and should start causing real worries for opposing quarterbacks as this season winds on. Offense was never a problem for this team and it won’t be this year. Matt Hasselback has gotten better and better, Shaun Alexander should be as potent as ever and their wide receivers lead by Darrell Jackson and Koren Robinson will provide great balance for a team that proved last year it can score on almost anyone. Perhaps the only real impediment for the Seahawks this year will be a rough stretch schedule that will see them play Dallas, Minnesota and Atlanta in late November and December.

2nd – The Rams – Like I said, they’ll still put up nice offensive numbers. They still have Faulk, who isn’t quite done yet, and they still have Tory Holt, who is probably the best receiver not named Moss in all of football. The Stephen Jackson era will have to wait if Faulk is healthy, and don’t look for Chris Chandler to see any real time unless disaster strikes Marc Bulger. The Rams biggest issues will be their lines. Kyle Turley is out indefinitely with back problems (that could be career threatening) and Grant Wistrom is gone from the other side. They brought in Bernard Holsey to try and fill the gap but he had major surgery this spring and might not be ready to go. The big bright spot is Leonard Little on defense, who comes in off of a career high in tackles and his second highest sack total as a pro. The Rams won the Superbowl in 1999 with a defense that was just good enough to stop a good offense while they scored hundreds of points. They lost it in 2001 because of their X-factor. Mike Martz is the key to this team. For some reason, Martz has this pathological belief that the only way to win the game is to throw for 500 yards. His unwillingness to go to Faulk in key situations has hurt the team in the past 3 seasons and his belief that his sheer offensive brilliance can trump any adjustment an opposing team might make could be their undoing this year. As Martz’s ego goes, so go the Rams, but even this year, that will still be to the playoffs.

3rd – The Cardinals – Don’t get too excited. I’m actually picking a tie between the Cards and the 49ers. The Cards turned the corner in the passing game last year but were still wretched on defense. They added Larry Fitzgerald through the draft to bolster the already good passing game. But then the Cards went heavy on defense, drafting Darnell Dockett and signing Bertrand Berry and David Macklin. The offensive line wasn’t stellar last year but it was good enough to keep Josh McCown feeling comfortable. And that should be good enough this year, provided that Anquan Boldin’s knee injury isn’t serious (which it could be). Arizona will start moving back toward that Jake Plummer rookie year point where they were just good enough to start outscoring bad teams and getting some wins. They’ll also get to play the Giants, Lions and Bucs, all of whom will be weak teams this year, near the end of the season. It’s tempting to think that the losing tradition will just continue in the desert this year. But Denny Green has won when he’s been given the chance and he does have some tools with which to work. The Cards may sniff .500 for the first time in years if they can just keep the offense chugging along and hope that last year’s 24th ranked defense really can’t get any worse.

4th – The 49ers – San Francisco will be improved by the subtraction of Jim Mora Jr on defense this year. Mora’s kid spent most of the ’03 season 1 more big play from being fired and constantly depended on great plays from Julian Peterson to keep San Fran in the game. His reward? The Falcons, a team with the most dynamic offensive player in a generation, made him the head coach. Back in the bay, the offense will struggle this year. They just don’t have the line, especially with the loss of Ron Stone. Kevan Barlow is a nice back but isn’t much of a threat to break a big run. They won’t need to worry about the arm strength of either Rattay or Ken Dorsey. The West Coast offense is built around short passing. That will be ok. But Julian Peterson has threatened to sit out after being tagged as the franchise player, limiting his contract options. Without Peterson this team has virtually no ability to stop the run or the short passing game. More importantly, they don’t have a consistent runner of their own to chew clock. While the West Coast offense does try to supplement the run with the short pass, history has shown that a solid back (Roger Craig, Dorsey Levens, Ahman Green) who can chew up the yards on the ground is key. Kevan Barlow is not that back. Without a running game, the Niners will leave an already weak defense on the field for a long time each game and find themselves throwing from the whole early and often.

Stay tuned to moodspins all week for Mark’s NFL Preview. Up tomorrow – The AFC North!

We’ll go step by step, starting out west, taking a look at the big story in each division, figuring out who is going to the playoffs (or the tournament as the NFL became fond of saying last year) and take a special look at the effect of schedule on the prospects of any given team. By the time we’re done, we’ll have a nice look at exactly how the NFL should shake out come February. So sit down, buckle up, and get your “what the hell are you talking abouts” ready for action.

The AFC West

The Big Story

The Big Story in the AFC West is the Denver Broncos. They sent leading rusher Clinton Portis to the Washington Redskins in a star-studded deal to land cornerback Champ Bailey. With Mike Anderson still manning the fullback position and Quentin Griffin in reserve, the Broncos simply assumed that it didn’t matter who was running behind the best offensive line in the NFL. After all, they plugged in Terrell Davis and he ran for 2,000 yards. They plugged in Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary and they were virtually unstoppable, each having a 1,000 yard season (Gary in 99, Anderson in 00). They plugged in Clinton Portis and he shattered 1,000 yards. They tossed Quentin Griffin back there to spell Portis and he ran for 345 yards on only 94 attempts, a robust 3.7 ypc average for those of you keeping score at home. So why not take the chance? Bailey is one of if not the league’s best cover corners and the Bronc’s D desperately needed help after finishing with an embarrassing 9 interceptions as a team last year. So the Broncos pull the trigger and bring to town an instant defensive presence and count on their nearly invulnerable offensive line to continue clearing the way for whatever back happens to have the rock.

Why It Doesn’t Matter

Because if your corner back is tackling Priest Holmes or LaDanian Tomlinson you’ve already lost the battle. Remember, Clinton Portis is a fine back, but he was only the 3rd best feature back in his own division. The pounding styles of LT and His Holiness belie amazingly soft hands that helped them both reel in enough catches to pass the 2,000 combined yardage marker last season. Neither can be tackled one on one by a defensive back. It takes a gang. San Diego doesn’t have much in the way of a threatening passing attack and wasn’t’ a big danger to win the division. Kansas City has enough weapons on offense that someone is going to end up open every time they decide to go play action. This deal for the Broncos is more about winning in January against the other 3 divisions than it is taking home and AFC West crown.

Team By Team Projections

1st – The Chiefs – KC won this division handily last year despite having almost no defense. Dante Hall provided and X-Factor that helped them squeeze out a huge OT win in Lambeau that set the tone for the season. Of course, the old adage stands true: Defense wins Championships. Teams that get caught in shootouts come playoff time tend to be teams that go home early and the Chiefs were no exception last year. But that’s the playoffs and we’re dealing with the regular season right now. KC gets the luxury of 4 games against the Chargers and Raiders, neither of which will be very good this year. Their already potent passing attack is made even more deadly by a healthy Priest Holmes constantly demanding 8 men in the box to stop the run. Their biggest asset this season will be the addition of Gunther Cunningham, a veteran defensive mind who may just be able to take the league’s 29th ranked defense and bring it back up toward the middle of the pack. They’ve suffered virtually no big losses outside of Tackle John Tait moving to Chicago. Perhaps their biggest obstacle is their road schedule. The Chiefs will have to travel to Baltimore and to Tennessee, both locations being notorious for their treatment of visiting offenses.

2nd – The Broncos – Denver finished 10-6 last year. They got a premier CB, they lost a premier RB. Lost in all of that was the signing of veteran safety John Lynch. Lynch isn’t as young as he used to be but his instincts haven’t faded and most players still say he hits like a Mack truck. Denver had a good draft in snagging D.J. Williams from the University of Maryland. They’ve also got aging Luther Ellis trying to perk up the defense but it remains to be seen if he has anything left. But then there’s bad news for the Broncos. Ian Gold and John Mobley are gone and the reason why D.J. Williams was so important. Easy Ed McCaffery and Shannon Sharpe have both retired, meaning that the pressure is right back on Rod Smith, who has clearly lost a step, and Ashlie Lelie, who hasn’t blossomed into the dominant wideout (only 37 catches last year) that the Broncos had expected. Working in Denver’s favor is a reasonable schedule that forces Miami and Atlanta to travel to the Mile High City to play in the cold. This is a Bronco team that will finish 2nd in the division but will still miss the playoffs.

3rd – The Raiders – Oakland never shook the hangover of its loss in the Superbowl to Tampa Bay. The Raiders imploded last season, showing their age time and time again and finding themselves completely unable to stop anyone on defense. Rich Gannon ran for his life on many an occasion and Tim Brown suffered through a near career low 10.9 yards a catch as the season wore on. Tackle Lincoln Kennedy compounded problems by retiring promptly at the end of the season as Rich Gannon had surgery. But the Raiders have made and attempt to rebuild. They picked up Kerry Collins after the Giants allowed him to walk in the wake of Eli Manning and Kurt Warner. They drafted Robert Gallery, the most dominant Offensive Lineman in college to plug into the line along the model of Jonathon Ogden, Orlando Pace, Tony Boselli and of course, Lincoln Kennedy. They signed Warren Sapp to breathe new life into a defensive line that couldn’t sack a high school quarterback last season. These are quality guys who could help make a difference, especially if Jerry Porter stays healthy and Justin Fargas develops into the strong back that many experts think he could. But the Raiders are still in trouble on two fronts. First, they have a tough schedule for a team coming off of a 4-12 season. They open in Pittsburgh and will have to travel to Indy and Carolina over course of the season, plus a trip to Atlanta where a healthy Michael Vick could dissect this team. Second, they now have the second worst coach in football. Norv Turner was a flop in DC and has been a flop wherever he’s gone. In Miami he understood handing the ball off to Ricky Williams but was clueless when it came to the proper utilization of giant TE Randy McMichael and standout WR Chris Chambers. Miami was 26th in passing last year despite the constant threat of Ricky Williams opening up defenses and providing one on one coverage for Chambers and McMichael. Look for more vintage Norm in a 3rd place Oakland team this year.

4th – The Chargers – What can I say? Things just keep getting worse for San Diego. They’ll be back with Drew Brees again at QB now that negotiations with 1st round pick Phil Rivers have died. This wouldn’t have been bad had the Chargers not screwed things up so badly. Brees had great promise. But instead of getting an offensive line to protect him, San Diego invested in Wide Receivers and marginally talented defensive players, and then blamed Brees for not completely passes when he was being hit in the 3rd step of his 5 step drop. They pointed at LT as reason why Brees should excel, but let’s not forget the Dolphin lines of old that kept Marino untouched but couldn’t open up a hole for a back at gunpoint. Being able to block one way doesn’t mean a line can do both. So the Chargers benched Brees for Doug Flutie, who only managed to lead them below the .500 barrier again, ruining the confidence of Brees and making it that much harder for him to succeed. In 2004, petulant David Boston is gone, taking away a great target for Brees (though he did end up hurt), but more importantly the Chargers lost 7 offensive lineman, meaning they’ll be starting from scratch under what was already a poor protection scheme. Kevin Dyson and a healthy Reche Caldwell might provide nice targets for Brees, but for a team that must travel to Houston, Carolina and Indianapolis, well, this is going to be a long season.

Stay tuned to moodspins all week for Mark’s NFL Preview. Up tomorrow – The NFC West!

But the Nets have gone in the wrong direction somehow. They had some cap room. They had a 1 year bad contract in Dikembe Mutumbo. They owe a lot of money to Jason Kidd. They’ve even still got the $5 mill a year they owe Alonzo Mourning since his kidney crapped out again. But they didn’t owe that much. They had some room. There was no way they were going to be able to deal away Dikembe or Mourning. And there was no way that the team in its current configuration was going to win the East again, especially not with Shaq in conference and the Pistons sporting essentially the exact same team that won the NBA Title last year. So the thought by Rod Thorn that he had to make a trade wasn’t at all surprising. It made perfect sense actually. With Dikembe and Alonzo complete un-tradable, and with it making no sense to give up young talent, the only possible thing that could happen would be that Jason Kidd and his $19 million a year salary would be send packing to yet another team. After all, no GM would ever consider trading off all of his young signable talent in a bid to start over, right?

Apparently not. Rod Thorn has begun dismantling the Nets in a manner that should baffle every basketball fan on the face of the Earth. It began with Kenyon Martin. The Nets had plenty of cap room to sign Martin if they wanted. Or, if they wanted to be cheap, they could have traded off Jason Kidd (the Spurs are still very, very interested) and cleared the space and only had one big contract. This would have allowed the Nets to keep the young core of Martin, Jefferson, Collins and Kittles together. But instead, for some unfathomable reason, Thorn chose to trade the young Martin instead of the aging Kidd. This could have been forgiven had he traded him for another young player. It almost could have been forgiven had he traded him to a crappy team for draft picks. After all, had Thorn sent him to the Warriors or the Bulls he could have expected a high first round pick next year that might have actually made the squad and contributed toward the rebuilding of the team.

Instead, Thorn traded Kenyon Martin to the Nuggets, who made the playoffs last year. And he did it for 3 draft picks. 3 draft picks. The Nuggets were already a playoff team and they just acquired one of the league’s premier Power Forwards. They’ll only get better. They’ll only win more games. The draft picks will only get worse and worse as the years progress. Essentially, the Nets got nothing. Not a damn thing. They allowed Kenyon Martin to walk as if they hadn’t even offered him a contract in his free agent year. It’s unbelievable. It’s the worst decision made by a GM since the Warriors decided to draft Mike Dunleavy Jr. while anyone with a pulse was still on the board. It’s the equivalent of a team offering Adonal Foyle a long-term 8 figure deal. It was the exact opposite of what almost any GM in the league would have done. It was a trade of low priced youth for draft picks that stand almost no chance of ever making it in the league.

There was no way that Thorn could possibly screw things up any worse. I mean, he’d already dealt a top 3 Power Forward from the East for nothing. What else could he do, send away a quality guy with only 1 year left on his contract for a 2nd round pick? Yep, he could. Thorn promptly sent 30 year old Kerry Kittles to the Clippers for a 2nd round pick. Now, let’s be realistic. Kittles had a fairly bad contract. He was owed $10 million next year. But that was it. That was the end of his contract and they could have brought him back for less. If they felt they had to deal him they could have gotten more. A lot more. It’s not as if a team was renting Kittles for a playoff run. The Clippers now have him for the entire season, meaning that they can get all they can from his play and then when they find themselves out of contention they can ship Kittles off to a contender for another decent player. The Nets have opted instead to simply ship Kittles off for a 2nd round pick before the season starts. Why? Who wants a 2nd round pick? They’re rarely traded because the only value low picks have in the NBA is filling out an NBDL roster. It’s not like the other sports when sometimes the low rounds pan out. There just aren’t enough players in the NBA. There’s no need to fill more than 1 or 2 roster spots each season and the guys at the end of the bench on nearly ever team are only in the league because they showed a singular ability that got them classified as a role player. Ask Randy Brown some time how he ever won an NBA Title.

Now Jason Kidd is demanding a trade. He claims that he’s not, but he claimed in the past that he wasn’t demanding anything and it simply wasn’t the case. Richard Jefferson has no incentive to stay with the team when his option comes up because there is no longer the potential to go to an NBA Finals in New Jersey. Jason Collins only has 1 more year left before all the Nets can hope to do is make a qualifying offer. And let’s face it, with the amount of money that big men got this year he’ll do very well on the open market. This is a team only 1 season removed from back to back appearances in the NBA Finals that has suddenly found itself through two bad decisions in a position where it has almost no hope whatsoever of making the playoffs in the foreseeable future. With Martin and Kittles gone and Kidd and Jefferson on their way out this is a team that is really no better than the Bulls or the Raptors in the East. That’s the end result. A GM that assembled a team that quickly proved to be the class of the conference has destroyed it in almost as little time. It’s an amazing feat. It’s drawn the ire of Nets fans and sparked confusion in the rest of us. And the worst part is that what he has done will probably knock down attendance enough that the team will begin to lose money, screwing them in the long run because they weren’t willing to spend it. Way to go Rod, way to go.

Tune in Wednesday as we check in with Harold and Kumar to get some idea of what Rod Thorn might do next.