I always drag my feet when it comes time to write “A Global Look”. Which is usually whenever I feel it’s been too long. Although they tend to be on topics that interest me, they’re topics that initially aren’t interesting enough for me to go seek out information. I’m always glad I did though.
I’m also currently switching back and forth between Noam Chomsky’s “Interventions” and some guy’s book about presidents under pressure. I’ve never been a Chomsky reader, but Hugo endorsed him so he must be good…
“The United States’ intense and unscrupulous war has prompted not only Cuba, but also the European Union and countries like Canada, Mexico and Argentina, to pass legislation designed to protect their individual sovereignty and independence in the face of extraterritorial decisions adopted by the US Congress.” - Dr. Carlos Lage Davila, at the 55th Session of the United Nations Human Rights commission. Geneva, March 24th, 1999.
Fidel Castro has been the supreme leader of the Cuban government since 1959. That’s ten different US Presidents, six of whom are dead. At 80 years old (81 on August 13th) Cuba’s Comandante en Jefe is the source of more uncertainty than the island nation has faced since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Up for reelection next year many speculate that his younger brother Raul may be taking a permanent seat at the head of the Communist Party of Cuba.
Let’s not kid ourselves though. Raul, while impressive historically (Che Guevera was my homeboy), is no spring chicken himself. At 75 he will not be able to stave off the inevitable much longer than his older brother. So what’s next is the most feared moment in any young government, succession of power.
Unlike the Soviets before them, which were a band of countries that essentially wanted to be considered on par with western nations anyway, Cuba is caught between a rock and a hard place come the day there isn’t a Castro in charge. Soundbite media perception of Cuba is of a country with no political superstars other than Fidel and Raul. While that would make a collapse of the government all the more conceivable, this might just be unwarranted optimism by cable news.
Dr. Carlos Lage Davila is a former VEEP in Cuba. Clocking in at a spry 56 years old this man looks like the most obvious successor to Fidel’s regime. Not only does this young man have the trust of the Castro Family, he’s the little talked about figure in Cuba that’s been given a lot of responsibility from the ailing Fidel.
Davila can be seen meeting with Japanese officials or more commonly hobnobbing with Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez. Looking back at his career, it is quite the impressive laundry list of accomplishments. It is Carlos who is given much of the credit for bringing post-soviet Cuba to its current global stability. That means increased relations with the EU, overcoming the Sino-Soviet split by strengthening ties with China, and seducing Venezuela’s oil supply.
It may be that Raul is being used as a link to ensure the leadership position is given that smooth transition it needs from Fidel to the next generation Cuban authoritarian and that Carlos Davila is the true heir apparent.
It may just be wishful thinking by the US to assume that Castro hasn’t considered what will become of his country when he fades from mortality and into the annals of history. If we watch who it is making the country’s house calls then from an international relations point of view it is Carlos Davila that gives Cuba the best opportunity for success post-Fidel.
Not that switching from Castro to Carlos comes without risk. It remains to be seen whether or not Davila would be accepted by the people of Cuba. Whereas Raul Castro is not the most charismatic of men in political Cuba, he does have a revolutionary pedigree. It’s not as hard to sell Raul as a man of the people.
Davila is from a revolutionary family but came of age in a firmly Fidel Cuba. He isn’t particularly known as being anymore charismatic as Raul, but his popularity amongst political leaders and reputation for battling corruption within the government has led to his rising star.
While some see his role in the government as too willing to yield to the demands of Castro, it may just be his way of playing politics. Staying productive and in the good graces of El Jefe may allow Davila to step into a position where he can implement the mixed economy that he and many of his peers want so badly.
So it looks like the future of Cuba won’t be more of the same. While on the one hand it is doubtful that we’ll see it sign on as the 51st stat, it’s also unlikely that the next generation of Cuban leader will have much difficulty cutting down some of the red tape (get it, communist…red…) that separates it from more friendly interaction with the United States.
It is however much more likely that should Davila come to power we could see a stronger relationship building between the triumvirate of Hispanic leaders and new strength lent to Hugo and his plan for a stronger South America.
Carlos Lage Davila Geneva Speech
Cedric King writes frequently for his personal blog here. You can e-mail him at LCKv3D@gmail.com or take AIM at LCKv4.
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