The AFC South

The Big Story

It’s the dismantling of the Tennessee Titans. Jevon Kearse is gone. Eddie George is gone. Derrick Mason is still there but Justin McCaerins has been traded. Those Titan teams of the past couple of years no longer exist. Tennessee will have to rely on Chris Brown and Antowain Smith to carry a running game that has been the basis of the offense in Nashville since the move. Steve McNair has lost his favorite target in Frank Wycheck to retirement. The Titan defense will have to rely on Albert Haynesworth to anchor the defensive line and try to fight through the double teams that had historically plagued The Freak. This is no small task. The secondary will have its own issues if the pass rush isn’t there. Only Lance Shulters and Samare Rolle have more than a couple of years experience as starters. It’s difficult to call this a rebuilding year in Tennessee because they still have several of their starters on both side of the ball. They’ve still got one of the best home-field advantages in all of the NFL. But Jeff Fischer’s run of mullet magic may be nearing an end.

Why It Doesn’t Matter

Because this will be the year of the Texans. In year 3 many players come to fruition. They have a breakout, show why they were drafted and have a big impact. This is the year that the system finally allows David Carr to move forward. This is the year that Dominick Davis learns how to run behind the line at will and opens up the offense. This is the year that an already good defense learns how to take the ball away from other teams and give the offense more chances. Houston upset the Dallas Cowboys in the very first game of their existence. They shocked Miami in game one of last year. They proved themselves to be a force and would have done so with or without the moves of the Titans.

Team By Team Projections

1st – The Colts – Yes, it’s still the Colts. They still have Peyton Manning, they still have Edgerrin James, and they still have Marvin Harrison. They have great complementary players in Reggie Wayne and Marcus Pollard that just give Peyton Manning more weapons. Kicker Mike Vanderjagt was perfect last year in both PATs and Field Goals, adding even more points to the Colt total every game. Offense has never been and never will be their problem. Defensively the Colts will see trouble, especially in this division with a couple of good backs. Chad Bratzke’s departure leaves a big hole in the middle of the defense that someone is going to have to fill. 2nd year Nose Tackle Tank Reese will have to step up and fill the middle and try to negate some of the blocking schemes the Colts will see that are designed to exploit their weak run defense. The secondary will also face some real challenges with the loss of Walt Harris. Now the good news for the Colts. They will play a rough schedule of course as a first place team. But when they move out of division they’ll play three teams in Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota that don’t have established running games. Of those teams that do have good running games, only the Chiefs score with the kind of frequency that defines the Colts. They’ll be able to go toe to toe with New England and Denver. Most importantly, they can outscore everyone in their own division and exploit the two young quarterbacks in Houston and Jacksonville. It won’t be an easy run, but it will be a successful one for the Colts through the AFC South.

2nd – The Jags – The Jags were OK last year. They didn’t lose much. Mark Brunell was a Jacksonville institution. But do you remember the name Byron Leftwich? Remember the guy at Marshall with the smooth delivery? The guy who played on a broken leg when it meant winning the game? The monster figure behind the line that stands in the face of any rusher if he thinks he can unload the ball and takes the big hit if it means the touchdown? This is his year. Fred Taylor stayed healthy all year last year. He might be able to do it again this year. In fact, he probably will do it again this year. If he doesn’t his backups will step forward. LaBrandon Toefield is currently number 2 on the depth chart but he won’t stay there. Greg Jones is already getting his reps on special teams and is getting a lot of time near the goal line. Most people don’t know his name. He’s the most dominant running back in Florida St history. Had it not been for a knee injury he would have won a Heisman trophy. He’s the true heir to Fred Taylor and could begin to assert himself as early as this year. Defensively the Jags got way better, adding DeWayne Washington to bolster a weak secondary. The Jags were an amazing 2nd in the league against the rush last year and they’ve got everyone back. They’ll battle the Colts all the way to the end for the division. Unfortunately for them, the Jags have to go to Green Bay in the middle of December in the middle of their division race. That game will probably be their undoing.

3rd – The Titans – We already touched on the Titans a bit. Their losses are going to be tough to take. Their defense is going to be worse this year. Their running game is going to be unreliable at best and could completely fall apart with the unproven Brown and the erratic Smith. Perhaps their biggest loss came off the field. Gunther Cunningham left his position as linebackers coach to coordinate the defense in Kansas City. Steve McNair has been carrying the team on his shoulders for years now. He might not have a whole lot left in the tank. Especially when you take a look out over the schedule facing the Titans in 2004. They’ll play the Dolphins, Broncos, Packers and Chiefs out of division. Each presents a unique set of problems for the Titans. Miami’s defense is geared to stop the kinds of limited weapons McNair will see. The Broncos and Packers will run the ball through the tackles, a place where Tennessee isn’t sure they can fill gaps this year. And the Chiefs, well, they’re the Chiefs. Enough said. Don’t get me wrong. McNair still has something, even if he’s nearing empty. He’s still good for 2-3 wins all by himself. And Brown and Smith may in fact turn out to be solid backs this year that keep the Titan offense on the field. The problem is, you don’t win on what ifs. You win on talent. And this year, the Titans might just not have the talent.

4th – The Texans – This is a deceptive ranking for the Texans. They’ll be a very good 4th place team. They might be 8-8. They might move up in fact and finish a bit higher. But they will put pressure on the entire division and might finish as high as 3-3 in the AFC South. A good young core of David Carr, Andre Johnson and Dominick Davis could be bolstered by Jabar Gaffney if can improve on last year’s disappointing performance. Billy Davis is one of the better young TEs in the game and is a strong safety net for a quarterback that probably still has fresh memories of being sacked 4-5 times a game his rookie year. Dunta Robinson was one of the better corners in the draft this year and will make a big difference right away in a secondary that was 2nd worst in the league against the pass in 2003. They’ll get a big boost out of the division. They play San Diego, they play Detroit, they play the Jets and they play the Browns. It’s a good schedule to build confidence. Of course, these are a lot of assumptions for a team that finished in the 30s in both offense and defense last year. They were in a lot of games last year. But they only won 5 of those games last year. If the defensive additions don’t contribute, and if guys like Jamie Sharper don’t return to the form they had in their previous teams then it could be a long, long year in Houston again. Good running backs are hard to judge. Davis could have been a one year wonder. Gaffney might not come along, meaning teams can concentrate on Johnson and slow the passing attack again. But I think that this is the year it starts to come together for the Texans. This is the year they move to .500 and they might actually make some noise in the playoff race.

Stay tuned to moodspins all week for Mark’s NFL Preview. Up Tuesday – The NFC South!

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