The NFC North

The Big Story

The last hurrah of Brett Favre. The comic genius of Something About Mary fame has basically said that it is Superbowl or bust this year. Favre lost out last year on a miracle 4th and 23 against Philly that would have sealed the game and sent the Pack back to the NFC title game had the defense simply been able to not give up 23 yards on 1 play. His streak is in tact but his thumb is not. A recent press conference showed the damage done. Favre continued to climb the ladder of the all-time TD list toward Marino in spite of the pain and the altered delivery last year. This year will probably be his last dance. There is little reason to believe that Favre, already with 14 seasons and 346 TDs under his belt, will come back to the frozen tundra for another campaign that could leave him with a permanent injury and probably won’t lead to a title.

Why It Doesn’t Matter

Because of Ahman Green. It’s hard to imagine a Favre team that is run first but Ahman Green has brought that to the table. He’s one of the league’s most versatile backs, capable of shredding a defense through finesse or power and always keeps the danger in your mind of splitting out for a catch. Green corralled the fumble problems last year enough to keep the Pack on top of the NFC North and took them rolling into the playoffs for another shot at glory. Najeh Davenport will not be traded to Miami, meaning that Green will retain his best road paver and also another threat to come out of the flat with a swing pass. Tim Couch may be Favre’s heir-apparent. Another QB could come along. And while no one will replace Favre, the Pack will still be a contender as long as they can count on Ahman Green out of the backfield.

Team By Team Projections

1st – The Packers – Why? Because they still have Ahman Green. Unless Tommie Harris comes up huge for the Bears Brian Urlacher will still be fighting through 3 blocks to get him every game and there is no other player in the division capable of matching up with him one on one. Green will most likely be good for around 2,000 total yards this season and will most likely lead the division in TDs (unless Moss goes insane). Mike McKenzie’s holdout could hurt a defense that was questionable against the pass last year, but McKenzie’s not all that good, which is part of the reason they were questionable against the pass last year. What could really help the Pack is the play of Ahmad Carrol at the corner. Carrol spent his entire college career playing against Matt Mauck, Eli Manning, Rex Grossman and Chris Leak. He’s used to seeing teams air it out all over the place. While the speed of the NFL game may take him by surprise the notion of going deep certainly will not. The Packer secondary will be tested early with a trip to Indy and the right arm of Payton Manning. The Pack will only play 2 division games in their first 8 contests, meaning winning early is important to build a lead going into the two game swing part of the season. If they can come out of September at 2-2 having faced the Panthers and Colts they’ll be in good shape. If they come out 3-1 or 4-0 they’ll be able to clinch the division by just playing .500 against the rest of the North.

2nd – The Bears – Yes, the Bears. Why? Because quite frankly the Vikings and the Lions just aren’t that good. The injury to Urlacher isn’t that serious. He’ll be back early in the season. Chicago stands to enter September with the offensive line in tact for the first time since they won the division in 2001. John Shoop is out as offensive coordinator, meaning that the Bear offense will begin to go up and down the field instead of side to side. Thomas Jones has already unseated Anthony Thomas at running back but the two could push each other as the season goes. Rex Grossman is the unquestioned starter and did show flashes of his Gator self during his brief stint as the starter at the end of last season. Defensively, Tommy Harris and Tank Johnson have the potential to create the Washington and Traylor type situation where holes are filled and linebackers can scrape side to side unmolested, meaning that Brian Urlacher should see a lot more tackles and forced fumbles this year. Despite an almost non-existent pass rush last year the Chicago secondary was 9th overall against the pass. The Bears should get more push from the front 4 this year which should make them that much better against the pass. Now for the bad news. The season depends on the O-line staying healthy which is hasn’t done for 2 years. The D-line depends on the play of two rookies who may or may not be impact players. The Bears have the league’s most forgiving road schedule but they will welcome the Colts and Eagles to Soldier Field. This isn’t a playoff team, but 9-7 will be good enough for 2nd in the NFC North this year.

3rd – The Vikings – Minnesota just isn’t as good as advertised. They really aren’t. They were 24th in total defense last year and Greg Biekert retired. Their offense is one dimensional. Yes, Moss is great. 1600 yards receiving and 17 TDs screams great. Culpepper is not that great. I mean, how much talent does it take to heave the ball downfield and let Moss jump up for it? Minnesota’s running game was 4th in the league last year but they didn’t have a thousand yard rusher. Michael Bennet seems to be healthy but they’re not sure. Their offensive line is huge but outside of Mt. McKinnie there is little quickness. The Vikes will be tested by the blitz often this season as teams decide to take their chances and stop Randy Moss by preventing Culpepper from delivering the ball. Dallas and Philly will both gamble in the first two weeks of the season and take away a significant number of Dante’s options as early as possible. And the Vikings, who were 27th against the pass last year, will face Payton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Aaron Brooks and Matt Hasselback in addition to their normal helping of Brett Favre. Now for the good news. Minnesota still has Randy Moss, meaning every single play is a potential touchdown on offense. They will only play 4 of their road games outside, meaning this turf based team will feel the comfort of a dome for 12 games. Only 1 of their first 8 games is within the division, so they will control their own destiny with even a .500 start. The schedule sets up great for them and plays right into their offensive strengths. They should be able to score a ton of points this season again, which is good because their defense may be that bad again. There is potential in Minnesota this year. But there was potential last year. And in 2002. And in 2001. And in 2000. And they fell short every year, missing the playoffs several times.

4th – The Lions – I hesitated at first to anoint the Lions a last place team. They’re intriguing. Very intriguing. Detroit’s defense should be better this year. They brought in Brock Marion to anchor the secondary alongside Dre Bly. A healthy Boss Bailey should continue to improve their linebacking corps. Offensively they drafted the Legend and Kevin Jones. There is potential for a breakout season. But one question remains to be answered: is Joey Harrington actually any good. He’s gotten a pass to this point. Partly because there was no running game in Detroit, party because of the injury to Charles Rogers last year. Partly because people are still giving him the cushion from being outraged about the Cornhuskers taking his chance for a national title. He is the key to this team. Kevin Jones is not a great back. He was in fact about the 5th or 6th best back in the draft last year behind guys like Chris Perry and Greg Jones. Harrington must excel and force teams to respect the pass if Jones is to find running lanes. Harrington must turn Charles Rogers and the Legend Roy Williams into bona-fide NFL receiving threats if Detroit is to move the ball. The Lions were dead last in rushing last year and dead last in total offense. But here’s the real kicker for this Detroit team. They don’t have a 4th place schedule. The Lions will face the Falcons, Texans, Eagles, Cowboys, Jags, Colts and Titans out of division. Mike Vick makes Atlanta a different team. The Titans still have McNair. This is the breakout year for Byron Leftwich and David Carr. The Eagles, Cowboys and Colts are all just as good as they were last year. It’s going to be a rough run for a young team, and in the end, that’s why they’ll finish 4th.

Stay tuned to moodspins all week for Mark’s NFL Preview. Up tomorrow – The AFC South!

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