Pre-season has started. Camp is transforming from two-a-days into execution of the playbook. Fantasy owners have begun to cringe as keepers suffer injury after retirement after drug suspension. Jim Mora Jr. has already made 3 terrible defensive calls that could have cost his team the season. This can all be leading to just one thing. It must be time for the Musings to chip in 2 cents on what the season holds for the NFL.

We’ll go step by step, starting out west, taking a look at the big story in each division, figuring out who is going to the playoffs (or the tournament as the NFL became fond of saying last year) and take a special look at the effect of schedule on the prospects of any given team. By the time we’re done, we’ll have a nice look at exactly how the NFL should shake out come February. So sit down, buckle up, and get your “what the hell are you talking abouts” ready for action.

The AFC West

The Big Story

The Big Story in the AFC West is the Denver Broncos. They sent leading rusher Clinton Portis to the Washington Redskins in a star-studded deal to land cornerback Champ Bailey. With Mike Anderson still manning the fullback position and Quentin Griffin in reserve, the Broncos simply assumed that it didn’t matter who was running behind the best offensive line in the NFL. After all, they plugged in Terrell Davis and he ran for 2,000 yards. They plugged in Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary and they were virtually unstoppable, each having a 1,000 yard season (Gary in 99, Anderson in 00). They plugged in Clinton Portis and he shattered 1,000 yards. They tossed Quentin Griffin back there to spell Portis and he ran for 345 yards on only 94 attempts, a robust 3.7 ypc average for those of you keeping score at home. So why not take the chance? Bailey is one of if not the league’s best cover corners and the Bronc’s D desperately needed help after finishing with an embarrassing 9 interceptions as a team last year. So the Broncos pull the trigger and bring to town an instant defensive presence and count on their nearly invulnerable offensive line to continue clearing the way for whatever back happens to have the rock.

Why It Doesn’t Matter

Because if your corner back is tackling Priest Holmes or LaDanian Tomlinson you’ve already lost the battle. Remember, Clinton Portis is a fine back, but he was only the 3rd best feature back in his own division. The pounding styles of LT and His Holiness belie amazingly soft hands that helped them both reel in enough catches to pass the 2,000 combined yardage marker last season. Neither can be tackled one on one by a defensive back. It takes a gang. San Diego doesn’t have much in the way of a threatening passing attack and wasn’t’ a big danger to win the division. Kansas City has enough weapons on offense that someone is going to end up open every time they decide to go play action. This deal for the Broncos is more about winning in January against the other 3 divisions than it is taking home and AFC West crown.

Team By Team Projections

1st – The Chiefs – KC won this division handily last year despite having almost no defense. Dante Hall provided and X-Factor that helped them squeeze out a huge OT win in Lambeau that set the tone for the season. Of course, the old adage stands true: Defense wins Championships. Teams that get caught in shootouts come playoff time tend to be teams that go home early and the Chiefs were no exception last year. But that’s the playoffs and we’re dealing with the regular season right now. KC gets the luxury of 4 games against the Chargers and Raiders, neither of which will be very good this year. Their already potent passing attack is made even more deadly by a healthy Priest Holmes constantly demanding 8 men in the box to stop the run. Their biggest asset this season will be the addition of Gunther Cunningham, a veteran defensive mind who may just be able to take the league’s 29th ranked defense and bring it back up toward the middle of the pack. They’ve suffered virtually no big losses outside of Tackle John Tait moving to Chicago. Perhaps their biggest obstacle is their road schedule. The Chiefs will have to travel to Baltimore and to Tennessee, both locations being notorious for their treatment of visiting offenses.

2nd – The Broncos – Denver finished 10-6 last year. They got a premier CB, they lost a premier RB. Lost in all of that was the signing of veteran safety John Lynch. Lynch isn’t as young as he used to be but his instincts haven’t faded and most players still say he hits like a Mack truck. Denver had a good draft in snagging D.J. Williams from the University of Maryland. They’ve also got aging Luther Ellis trying to perk up the defense but it remains to be seen if he has anything left. But then there’s bad news for the Broncos. Ian Gold and John Mobley are gone and the reason why D.J. Williams was so important. Easy Ed McCaffery and Shannon Sharpe have both retired, meaning that the pressure is right back on Rod Smith, who has clearly lost a step, and Ashlie Lelie, who hasn’t blossomed into the dominant wideout (only 37 catches last year) that the Broncos had expected. Working in Denver’s favor is a reasonable schedule that forces Miami and Atlanta to travel to the Mile High City to play in the cold. This is a Bronco team that will finish 2nd in the division but will still miss the playoffs.

3rd – The Raiders – Oakland never shook the hangover of its loss in the Superbowl to Tampa Bay. The Raiders imploded last season, showing their age time and time again and finding themselves completely unable to stop anyone on defense. Rich Gannon ran for his life on many an occasion and Tim Brown suffered through a near career low 10.9 yards a catch as the season wore on. Tackle Lincoln Kennedy compounded problems by retiring promptly at the end of the season as Rich Gannon had surgery. But the Raiders have made and attempt to rebuild. They picked up Kerry Collins after the Giants allowed him to walk in the wake of Eli Manning and Kurt Warner. They drafted Robert Gallery, the most dominant Offensive Lineman in college to plug into the line along the model of Jonathon Ogden, Orlando Pace, Tony Boselli and of course, Lincoln Kennedy. They signed Warren Sapp to breathe new life into a defensive line that couldn’t sack a high school quarterback last season. These are quality guys who could help make a difference, especially if Jerry Porter stays healthy and Justin Fargas develops into the strong back that many experts think he could. But the Raiders are still in trouble on two fronts. First, they have a tough schedule for a team coming off of a 4-12 season. They open in Pittsburgh and will have to travel to Indy and Carolina over course of the season, plus a trip to Atlanta where a healthy Michael Vick could dissect this team. Second, they now have the second worst coach in football. Norv Turner was a flop in DC and has been a flop wherever he’s gone. In Miami he understood handing the ball off to Ricky Williams but was clueless when it came to the proper utilization of giant TE Randy McMichael and standout WR Chris Chambers. Miami was 26th in passing last year despite the constant threat of Ricky Williams opening up defenses and providing one on one coverage for Chambers and McMichael. Look for more vintage Norm in a 3rd place Oakland team this year.

4th – The Chargers – What can I say? Things just keep getting worse for San Diego. They’ll be back with Drew Brees again at QB now that negotiations with 1st round pick Phil Rivers have died. This wouldn’t have been bad had the Chargers not screwed things up so badly. Brees had great promise. But instead of getting an offensive line to protect him, San Diego invested in Wide Receivers and marginally talented defensive players, and then blamed Brees for not completely passes when he was being hit in the 3rd step of his 5 step drop. They pointed at LT as reason why Brees should excel, but let’s not forget the Dolphin lines of old that kept Marino untouched but couldn’t open up a hole for a back at gunpoint. Being able to block one way doesn’t mean a line can do both. So the Chargers benched Brees for Doug Flutie, who only managed to lead them below the .500 barrier again, ruining the confidence of Brees and making it that much harder for him to succeed. In 2004, petulant David Boston is gone, taking away a great target for Brees (though he did end up hurt), but more importantly the Chargers lost 7 offensive lineman, meaning they’ll be starting from scratch under what was already a poor protection scheme. Kevin Dyson and a healthy Reche Caldwell might provide nice targets for Brees, but for a team that must travel to Houston, Carolina and Indianapolis, well, this is going to be a long season.

Stay tuned to moodspins all week for Mark’s NFL Preview. Up tomorrow – The NFC West!

Last 5 posts by

• The Balance - April 1st, 2005
• Fantasy Time - March 14th, 2005
• Letting It Go – In Defense Of Svetlana Khorkina - September 6th, 2004
• Mark's 2004-05 NFL Preview - Part 8: The NFC East, The Playoffs & More! - August 25th, 2004
• Mark's 2004-05 NFL Preview - Part 7: The AFC East - August 24th, 2004